Monday, July 25, 2011

Guesstimates on July 25, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1326-1341. I think the debt ceiling talks are much ado about nothing. A move to 1400 is underway.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is now headed for 1.5300.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

August Crude: A rally to 103-104 likely.

GLD – August Gold: Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1485.

SLV - September Silver: This market is headed for resistance at 41.00. Any strength above 43.00 would mean that the move will continue above 50.00.

Google: I think a move to 700 and above is underway.

Apple: Upside target is now 415.

4 comments:

pimaCanyon said...

"I think the debt ceiling talks are much ado about nothing."

Indeed. The news media making such a big deal out of it only adds to the absurdity of it all.

George Rahal said...

Ditto.

However, I do believe the US Debt rating is of material importance, not because the US may default, but because a lower rating can result in much higher interest rates; it will have to compete more with other sovereign debt and some institutional investors, like pensions, that have strict regulations on debt quality requirements, may have to dump treasuries. That's a big outflow.

Higher interest rates adversely affect stock market valuation, among other things.

dave said...

I've never seen so much bull market "wall of worry" watching CNBC this morning.

Hurst 9 year cycle low isnt due until late October. Thats when this debt news may begin to stick, but not now.

MK said...

debt ceiling is not raised = sell bonds = higher bond yields

debt ceiing is raised = asset reallocation from bonds to stocks by real money funds = sell bonds = higher bond yields

TLT target = 90 = approx. 3.4 to 3.5% on the 10y tsy