Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Guesstimates on July 27, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1317-1330. I think the debt ceiling talks are much ado about nothing. A move to 1400 is underway.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is now headed for 1.5300.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

August Crude: A rally to 103-104 likely.

GLD – August Gold: Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1520.

SLV - September Silver: Resistance is at 41.00. Any strength above 43.00 would mean that the move will continue above 50.00.

Google: I think a move to 750 and above is underway.

Apple: Upside target is now 415.


bigelam said...

Carl, what makes you think debt ceiling impasse is much ado about nothing. Taking it for granted is arrogance.

Kishore said...

We were always told that the borrowing is good for "credit rating" but only if you pay it back. The alternative to debt that cannot be paid is either more debt or bankruptcy. Both are bad. It is a very serious matter. But bulls don't seem to care maybe because it is not BS.

Doug said...

Your market analysis confidently indicates that we're headed for 1400+ in the ES. So I'm curious, on days like this when we sell-off deeply, much further than your daily range expected, are you a buyer or do you sit on the sidelines and wait for the dust to clear?

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
the 1307.25 low today matters to me . that said it is to soon
to raise my stop . ideally 1309.75 holds from here and the futures head back above 1340.25 in a smaller subdividing triangle .
if that takes place then a poke above 1340.25 will be followed by a break back down towards 1315.41?
call it 1315.25-1315.50 and id call it key support to complete point 20 as a minor triangle .
will see soon enough
i got lucky today
yet i did my homework

boris said...

Dear Kishore,
The problem with Bulls is that they are Dollar Blind. If they could have a dimension aside from Dollar they would know that they are losing even if numbers show plus( in depreciated Dollars).
The problem with debt is the same. Nobody cares if Dollar goes to hell. And that is fine with general public, but I asked and would like to ask very much for Dear Carl, whose credentials and capabilities i respect, to be a bit more open to the idea of telling their readers that the flip side if "arrogance" about debt is the DOLLAR, and we ALL AMERICANS lose when it loses Purchase Power.

More so, we know what happened in Germany after it took barrel of money to buy bread.

Yes, Monster of a man Hitler was elected.

Food For thought, if depreciated Dollar can still buy it(:-

Thanks and again, as a technician I have ultimate respect for Carl's abilities. I am not sure he has come to be so aloof to Dollar. In my opinion it would be a great service to the readers, if Carl even mentioned. The result of "no problem with debt" thinking is the problem with dollar. That is what all/most of US get payed with.
And especially Older People, whose savings are decimated as they sleep.

"Even Keynes knew that and said.
Inflation( depreciation of Dollar) is the subtle way to steal from public and not one in a million understand it"

Good Trading Dear Friends

Adsense said...

this is begining to look like a panic .
moving stop to 1 tick below todays low and will look to trade another day .
had great entry for position trade
yet if it was a great entry then i should not get stopped out
if i get stopped out i can live with it .
aug 2nd 5th is still the turn date
as is friday .
if we hold todays lows a move up above 1340.25 would complete wave d of a minor triangle in point 20
im done with trading today will let the market decide

dave said...

venus sextile saturn is another a very powerful bullish astrocycle thats two weeks away.

staying long and strong

todays selling looks like a b-wave fakeout and a springboard for strong rally.

BullandBearWise said...

Not sure how you can say the debt ceiling is much ado about nothing when U.S. credit is growing by 10% every QUARTER.

MC said...

just go to and read on first page "Banks bracing for U.S. Downgrade see no panic yet."
Today's 10y german bund widened further against its U.S. counterpart, the 10y Treasury note. This two pieces of data are just as contradictory as saying that during night the sun shines. Yes, but somewhere else on the globe ! Cheers. MC said...

I wrote a piece yesterday "what if" is not being priced into the market..and you need to sell any and all soon (today) the street would have to start pricing in the "what if" factor.

Now the problem I have with ANY technical trader (which I am) right it's not techncial's's jobs on the line. Every money manager was piling in the 100% certainty that the debt ceiing would be they are saying, we are getting too close for confort, I have to take 1/2 off.

When Thursday comes and the debt ceiling bill gets turned down (I believe it will) the scramble to get the 1/2 off starts which will last 2 days (thursday/friday) and maybe monday..remember, the only buyers in town are the ones who are now panicking and selling.

I am not ruling out 1250 by Monday on the spx. When the dems fold to the repubs..the bill will be signed and revisited in 6 months.

Unfortunately-that is the best case. Worse case, dems say no and let the debt ceiling date come and go. What and where does the market have to price in? How do you put a number on something that has NEVER happened before?

It is very risky making a trade on something being passed-when one side has nothing to lose. Good luck

Here is the link if you want to read it.

GapDown said...

I think the debt ceiling talks are much ado about nothing.

the last famous words......

Joe Acevedo said...

Dick Bove,
"Sell Everything" ..."Call me Chicken Little because the sky really is falling"

Thx Dick, nice call on Citibank & Bank of America by the way.

Adsense said...

How do you put a number on something that has NEVER happened before?

The rebulicans shut down the government in 1995 ?? and the usa
did default before many many years ago . so what is it that never happend before ???
when was the declaration of independance actually signed ??
The text of the Declaration of Independence appears in the Journals of the Continental Congress on July 4, 1776.

Additional references to the Declaration of Independence can be found in the Journals of the Continental Congress on the following dates in 1776:

■June 7 - Richard Henry Lee introduced a resolution urging Congress to declare independence from Great Britain.
■June 11 - Thomas Jefferson, John Adams, Benjamin Franklin, Roger Sherman, and Robert R. Livingston were appointed to a committee to draft a declaration of independence.
■June 28 - A fair copy of the committee draft of the Declaration of Independence was read in Congress.
■July 1-4 - Congress debated and revised the Declaration of Independence.
■July 2 - Congress declared independence by adopting the Lee Resolution.
■July 4 - Congress adopted the Declaration of Independence.
■July 4 - Congress ordered that the Declaration of Independence be printed (Dunlap Broadsides).
■July 19 - Congress ordered the Declaration of Independence engrossed (officially inscribed) and signed by members.
■August 2 - The engrossed copy of the Declaration of Independence was signed by most of the delegates. Elbridge Gerry, Oliver Wolcott, Lewis Morris, Thomas McKean, and Matthew Thornton all signed on a later date.
kind of interesting history