Wednesday, January 02, 2013

Guesstimates on January 2, 2013.



March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1440-1456. The market has turned up strongly on the partial resolution of fiscal cliff worries. I now see 1488 and a conservative and 1546 as an optimistic upside target.
QQQ:  The Q's are now headed for 73.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has reached the lower edge of our initial 85-86 upside target zone. I think this bull market has a lot further to go, probably to 96 or so.
February Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower. Resistance above the market is at 95.
February Gold:  A repetition of the size of the last rally would put Gold up to 1715. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned up.
March Silver: The last rally in silver was about 350 points. A similar rally now would put the market up to 33.30. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned upward.
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800 and higher.
Apple:  Contrary to my expectation AAPL broke a little below its 505 reaction low. I still think the market won't even spend a full session below that level but if  it does support is at 480.

3 comments:

Witold said...

Hi,
Happy New Year,
Carl you are seeing 1488 a conservative and 1546 as an optimistic upside target,and still crude is headed for 70 and lower. I mean it's impossible.

Kishore said...

Results of Financial Cliff Bowl: Who won?

What a cliff hanger!

Grover Norquist Republicans: 84

Barack Obama Democrats: 16

Harry Reid Seniors: 0

And finally Ben Bernanke: 100

modernarms said...

Carl,
you had it right a while ago with the 3 peaks and domed house playing out. I'll admit though, picking a top is tough. Don't expect much more upside, this is point 25 or 27. It doesn't really matter which point it is, the market is headed sub 1300 by March 20, then a recovery. 10 Year, 45 Year and 10-20-60-80 Year cycles are all supporting this scenario.
All the best