Thursday, January 24, 2013
The middle chart is the one which I think is sending the most bullish message, one which may well sustain the this nearly four-year-old bull market for several more months. You can see that the 20 day moving average of the daily count of 12 month new highs among New York Stock Exchange stocks is at its highest level in more that 4 years and the highest level since the bull market started in 2009. As a rule bull markets end only after this indicator has started making lower tops, a phenomenon which would take several more months before becoming possible. So this suggests that my idea that the bull market will last until the fall of 2013 is not at all far fetched.
The top chart shows the NYSE advance-decline line, the running total of daily advances minus daily declines. The last two rallies sent this indicator up 25, 000 net advances. A similar move from the November 2012 low would put the indicator at 120,000, still 5,000 net advances from where we are now. This suggests that the up trend from the November 2012 low has further to go. This reinforces my observation that such bull market up legs tend to last at least 3 months and usually more.
The bottom chart is a daily bar chart of the Dow industrials. This average has finally made a new bull market high. I want to make some comments on George Lindsay's three peaks and a domed house formation as it manifests itself in this chart.
As you know I think that a major example of this formation started with the three peaks which developed in 2011 (first purple oval). Since the October 2011 low I think we have seen a fairly well defined domed house with point 23, the typical top of the domed house, occurring in September 2012. The current rally has made a new bull market high but I still think its top, which still lies ahead of us, will be point 27. The implication here is that once the November 2012- ? rally ends the Dow will drop below its June 2012 low point.
One of you pointed out to me that one could have foreseen that point 27 would be a new high by observing that a minor 3 peaks formation developed during September-October 2012 with point 10 being the November low. Dome houses which follow three peaks always put the Dow above the highest of the 3 peaks and the domed house which has developed from the November 2012 low has been no exception. Point 23 of this minor domed house will probably coincide with point 27 of the bigger domed house. How will we recognize it? Look for some sort of head and shoulders top, possibly a distorted one. So far nothing like this is visible on the chart of the Dow.
Assuming this rally ends no later than March 1 there is another potential three peaks visible on this chart. The first two peaks are the May and September 2012 highs. The third peak generally follows the first by no more than 10 months. So if the Dow continues its advance well past March 1 I will begin to doubt this latest three peaks possibility. Assuming the rally does end by March 1 one would expect a drop at least below the November 2012 low and possibly below the June low to satisfy the the bearish implications of the 2011 three peaks. But once this drop is over the prognosis would be for a domed house rally to new highs above the upcoming third peak. Such a domed house would probably not see its point 23, the bull market top, until the end of this year or early next.