Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Guesstimates on January 29, 2013

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1485-97. It is likely that the ES will rally to 1546 during the next few weeks.
QQQ:  The Q's are now headed for 73.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB is pursuing a tighter monetary policy than the Fed and that  will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has further to go, at least to 96 or so.
March Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower. Resistance above the market is at 95.
February Gold:  A repetition of the size of the last rally would put gold up to 1715. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned up.
March Silver: The last rally in silver was about 350 points. A similar rally now would put the market up to 33.30. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned upward.
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800 and higher.
Apple:  During the current rally in the averages AAPL has underperformed the market and GOOG. Longer term downside target is 350 and near term support is 435. Meantime resistance above the market is at 525.


Afshaikh said...

I don't understand your take on Crude oil You have been saying 95 is resistance is but it's been above 95 for several days ?

It even broke resistance at 97, and looking to go higher.

What is your take on Crude please.

Bill said...

This bull looks tired right now. And VIX has started to rise from 12 to 13. I think the Fed's statement tomorrow will take uncertainty out of the market and allow it to move in either direction. I think the top will be somewhere between 1515 and 1545 reached over the next 1 to 3 weeks. Nevertheless, China is a wild card. Their stock market has just bottomed and is on a tear now. If China ends up driving up oil, metals, materials, and gold the S&P 500 may establish an all time high by March or April. The other wild card is the Dow, the Dow is within 1 or 2% of an all time high. If the Dow hits an all time high it will give psychological momentum for S&P 500 to do likewise.