Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Guesstimates on February 20, 2013

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1522-1534. The market is getting close to my 1546 target. Moreover there is strong long term resistance in the 1540-87 range. It is likely that a drop of 100 or more points will begin from a top in that resistance zone.  
QQQ:  The Q's are now headed for 73.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB is pursuing a tighter monetary policy than the Fed and that  will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. There is  support at 1.3300.
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has further to go, at least to 96 or so.
March Crude:  The September 2012 top is just above 100 and unless the market starts accepting prices above that level I will stick with my view that it is headed for 70 and lower. Resistance above the market is now at 101.
April Gold:  Gold is likely to find support near its last two lows in the 1530-40 range.
March Silver: Silver should find support near the 26.00 level.
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800 and higher.
Apple:  During the current rally in the averages AAPL has underperformed the market and GOOG. Longer term downside target is 350 and near term support is 435. Meantime resistance above the market is at 525.

1 comment:

Bill said...

Carl, you are incredible. Seriously I admire how cool, calm, and collected you are about the markets. And how patient you are before even calling for the formation of a top. Today, you changed the writing of the forecast for the S&P 500 for the first time. Everytody has been calling for a top for 2 and you've been totally not influenced by them.