Friday, February 08, 2013

Guesstimates on February 8, 2013

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1503-1513. It is likely that the ES will rally to 1546 during the next few weeks.
QQQ:  The Q's are now headed for 73.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB is pursuing a tighter monetary policy than the Fed and that  will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Support is at 1.3400.
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has further to go, at least to 96 or so.
March Crude:  The September 2012 top is just above 100 and unless the market starts accepting prices above that level I will stick with my view that it is headed for 70 and lower. Resistance above the market is now at 101.
April Gold:  A repetition of the size of the last rally would put gold up to 1715. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned up.
March Silver: The last rally in silver was about 350 points. A similar rally now would put the market up to 33.30. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned upward.
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800 and higher.
Apple:  During the current rally in the averages AAPL has underperformed the market and GOOG. Longer term downside target is 350 and near term support is 435. Meantime resistance above the market is at 525.

1 comment:

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
i mentioned before my long term indicator had yet to turn up and that it tends to take a year to 2 years just to get back into the normal range , it turned up from the jan 7th low 2013. what is also interesting is the spread between the 120 month ( 10 year moving average ) and the 240 month ( 20 year moving average .it ticked up in august 2012 then dropped to a new low and just ticked back up again as of the jan 2013 close .
this spread has been falling since 2007 . It is becoming increasingly difficult to find a bearish case
unless the dow was to drop below 13000 . i am a bit concerned though with the march 18th time frame for a cycle high . that said i still think this is a move upwards toward point 21 . the mid June time frame is also a concern
yet march 18th would be considered the maximum extended advance from the July 2010 lows . based on what i am seeing i cant call this a point 27 move even though i do understand your labeling . the key will be the 1567 price level in the spx for me .
good luck