Friday, February 22, 2013

Guesstimates on February 22, 2013



March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1501-1511. Short term support is in the 1490-95 zone but I think it is likely that this reaction will carry the ES down to 1470 or so. There is strong long term resistance in the 1540-87 range. It is likely that a drop of 100 or more points will begin from a top in that resistance zone and that top probably is still ahead of us.
QQQ:  The Q's are now headed for 73. The 65.50 level is now support.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The market has broken below the first two support levels I calculated and now has retraced about half of its rally from the 1.2700 low last November. The September 2012 top was about 1.3150 so any weakness below 1.3100 will mean that the market is headed back to the 1.27-1.28 zone.
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has further to go, at least to 96 or so.
April Crude:  The September 2012 top is just above 100 and unless the market starts accepting prices above that level I will stick with my view that it is headed for 70 and lower. Resistance above the market is now at 101.
April Gold:  Gold is likely to find support near its last two lows in the 1530-40 range.
March Silver: Silver should find support near the 26.00 level.
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800 and higher.
Apple:  During the current rally in the averages AAPL has underperformed the market and GOOG. Longer term downside target is 350 and near term support is 435. Meantime resistance above the market is at 525.

2 comments:

curt said...

looking at the chart it becomes apparent that whenever the market gets significantly above the 200DMA, like it currently is, it has a history of correcting back down to that MA.

Kishore said...

Curt, a drop down to the 200 day MA is exactly what we need as many people quit playing the upside long time ago.

But Carl appears to be expecting another trip to the stratosphere again, as Carl said on Feb 21, "It is likely that a drop of 100 or more points will begin from a top in that resistance zone and such a top probably is still ahead of us."