Tuesday, March 05, 2013

Guessgtimates on March 5, 2013

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1523-1538. The ES is getting close to the lower edge of its 1546-1587 long term resistance zone. I think a drop of 10% or more is likely to start within a few weeks.  
QQQ:  The Q's are now headed for 73.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro is headed for 1.2700. Longer term upside target remains 1.40.
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has further to go, first to 96 and then probably to 100-01.
April Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
April Gold:  Support is in the 1530-50 zone lows of this trading range
May Silver: Support is at 26.00.
Google: Now headed for 950.
Apple:  Longer term downside target is 350 and near term support is 390. Meantime resistance above the market is at 480.


mike said...

Carl, is the pending 10% correction you expect the total drop of the doomed house formation ? thanks Michael

Bill said...

It's so hard to tell what'll happen. I was sure we had seen the top in February and we took it out today. Will there be a correction? Maybe not, all corrections since the 2009 bottom were tied to the end of QE (1, 2, and 3). But now we have QE infinity, does this mean the market won't correct until unemployment hits 6.5% and the Fed stops QE? Very possible. We've never had QE infinity in the history of the stock market, this is a new environment and it's anybody's guess what'll happen.