Friday, March 22, 2013

Guesstimates on March 22. 2013

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1539-48. The Cyprus news  hasn’t driven the market below its Sunday night low at 1529.50. This is a bullish sign. I think the ES is headed to the high end of the current long term resistance zone between 1546 and 1587.But I also think a drop of 10% or more is likely to start within a few weeks.  
QQQ:  The Q's are headed for 73.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro is scraping bottom for this reaction. The next significant move should be upward to 1.40.  
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has further to go, probably to 100-01.
April Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
April Gold:  Support is in the 1530-50 zone lows of this trading range
May Silver: Support is at 26.00.
Google: Now headed for 950.
Apple:  Longer term downside target is 350 and near term support is 390. Meantime resistance above the market is at 480.

1 comment:

Bill said...

Cyprus will not cause an instant market collapse. That's out of the question the way the market reacted this week. Though what the consensus seems to be is that Cyprus will cap stock market gains, and not for one week but long term. So I agree Carl that the correction will not start for a few more weeks, probably May. But even last year the correction between the third week of March and the beginning of May the market stayed flat. I agree that there are no signs of weakness to call for a correction right now, but there are no signs that the market will establish new highs either. The problem with Cyprus is this, it can't be fixed. Whatever you do it's bad. Even the 6.2% tax and recapitilizing the banking system with the EU plan will require restrictions on bank withdrawals to prevent capital flight. The country is bankrupt, and if you don't let people take the money out of the country, you have basically kill the economy. Argentina did something similar in 2001-2002 and GDP went down 30% with unrest, the crisis lasted a couple of years. Cyprus is no different, it's small, but it's a long lasting problem. And for now in the short term, although it didn't cause a correction it put a stop to the bull market and further gains have been capped. We are in flat trading territory until the correction starts a few weeks from now, probably at the beginning of May after earnings seasons.