Monday, April 01, 2013

Guesstimates on April 1, 2013

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1558-68. The Cyprus news hasn’t had more than a temporary effect on the market. This is a bullish sign. I think the ES is headed to the high end of the current long term resistance zone between 1546 and 1587. But I also think a drop of 10% or more is likely to start within a few weeks.  
QQQ:  The Q's are headed for 73.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro is scraping bottom for this reaction. The next significant move should be upward to 1.40.  
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has further to go, probably to 100-01.
May Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
June Gold:  Support is in the 1530-50 zone lows of this trading range
May Silver: Support is at 26.00.
Google: Now headed for 950.
Apple:  Longer term downside target is 350 and near term support is 390. Meantime resistance above the market is at 480.


Graph1159 said...

Hi Carl,
I think I see yet another nested Three Peaks Domed House on the Dow hourly chart. The three peaks and drop to point 10 were in February, with point 14 on March 4th. Points 15-20 took place during March 15-25. We should be headed for Point 23 now.

Kishore said...

I don't think that rallies fed by the FED care about the anything, including the Peaks or the Domed House, especially when Bernanke's Printer is causing the peaks. The proof is in the pudding - QEd, despite all the contrary evidence relating to the economy or the banks.

But the house of cards is definitely doomed, no if, not but, only phut of the air blast from the bubble!

Graph1159 said...

Hi Kishore,
I agree that the Fed's stimulus is exaggerating the rallies to some extent. But since March 2009, the Dow is up 121%. The dollar is down by only 5.8% during the same period. In fact, the dollar has been slowly trending higher since mid-2011. If this massive rally in stocks is entirely driven by the Fed, it seems the dollar would be down much, much more.

Kishore said...

Hi Graph1159,

The measurement of the value of the dollar relative to other currencies is less meaningful than the value in terms of dollar's purchasing power for food, gas or other essentials for life. That has definitely declined overall by a lot since March 2009. Please note that the inflation statistics issued by the government are mostly lies.

Moreover, if the stock market has gone up by 121% since March 2009, that means that the dollar has declined by 121% relative to the stock market. Unmistakeably, FED is the primary cause of inflation. It has been, since its inception and the governments have always had vested interest in inflation. The two complement each other to screw the people in order to maintain and enhance their own power.