Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Guesstimates on July 17, 2013

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1672-87. A break of 40 or more points is likely to start from the 1680-85 resistance zone but should end well above the June 24 low of 1553. The ES is headed to my long standing target of 1775 and possibly higher over the coming months.
QQQ:  Upside target is 79.
TNX (ten year note yield): The upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.85 % but I think the market will move past this level to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The market has put in three low points near 1.2800. It has now put in a full trading day above its 20 day moving average. It looks like a move up to 1.400 has started
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has held support at 94.50. The next upside target is 107.00.
August Crude:  Crude has nearly reached 108 resistance.  
August Gold:  I think a rally of$200-300 is underway.    
September Silver: The 18.00 level is now support and a rally to 24.00 or so is underway.
Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.

1 comment:

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
Just pointing out some time counts
using the dow . what i find coincident with this is the speculation of uncle ben's departure.
the rally low of :
march 6 2009 to april 23 2009
was 414 calendar days
the move from :
april 22 2009 to april 23 2010
was 367 calendar days .
this was also 255 trading days .
july 2 2010 to july 6th 2011
was 255 trading days ( 370 cal days )
oct 4 2011 to oct 5 2012 was
255 trade days ( 368 cal days )
nov 16 2012 plus 414 cal days
targets jan 4 2014
dec 31 2012 ( count from secondary low ) plus 367-370 cal days targets jan 2-jan 5 2014 .
Obviously we don't know if this trend will continue yet it bears
paying attention to ;
each leg following the initial leg up ( july 2010 - july 2011 )
oct 2011 oct 2012
were a little over 30 % rise in one years time .
when looking at valuations the dow is 8.75 % from its valuation .
i realize that stocks move from over valuation to under valuations
yet just a guide here .
yesterdays close at 15451.85 plus 8.75 % = 16803.88.
running the upper trend lines from the tops of 2000 and 2007 and where it sits jan 2014 16163 area
would be resistance .
taking the swing low in june 2012
and adding 30 percent ? targets 15645.61 and using the secondary low in nov 2012 16212.93 <---
id say to sum this up .
the 16163-16212 price range in early jan 2014 is a likely place for a top in the dow . bernanke would probably leave and cause a consolidation yet in reality it would be just a normal cycle .
if janet yellin takes his place
i don't see why the fed would depart from continuing with what they have been doing .
the key date for me is august 5th -7th which ideally will be a low point and if so i will continue
staying bullish into jan 2014
yet this market is showing some longer term bearish divergences
and for me i must respect that .
good luck