Friday, July 26, 2013

reaction then higher

Here is an hourly chart of the cash S&P 500 covering the past four months of trading activity.

As you can see this market average has rallied to a new bull market and historical high near 1698. I think it will move still higher over the coming months with 1775 my conservative target and 1900 as the more optimistic target. At 1900 the move up from the June 2013 low would equal the size of the November 2012-May 2013 rally.

On the way up there will be reactions and one of these started a few days ago. If it were to equal the size of the biggest reaction on the way up from the June 24 low the S&P would drop to 1674 or so before moving above the 1700 level (blue rectangles.  There is also support at the July 17 low near 1672 (green line).

The ES drop visibly below 1672 it will probably continue downward to the midpoint of the rally from the June low which currently stands near 1628 (purple line).

In any case there is no sign yet that the bull market which started from 666 in March of 2009 is over. So far it has lasted 52 months, quite a bit longer than a normal bull market. But the 2002-2007 bull market was also unusually long and lasted 60 months. As I have mentioned in previous posts George Lindsay time periods suggest a bull market top this fall or early next year so there is plenty of time left for the current rally to  extend to the 1774 and 1900 upside targets.

1 comment:

Carlos Nibot said...

Carl. Great Linsey posts! I was looking Linsey's model recently and had some thoughts but I mostly do EW.

Per EW after your 1776ish high. (Near the Full Moon on Aug 21st perhaps +/- a few days and points) EW predicts around a 250 point spx drop to lower 1500's (.5 fib hitting 2009 trendline and near the 200dma) Then it predicts a rise to 1900+.

I don't know if you follow puetz windows (deals with solar eclipses and full moons) but there will be one in Nov 2013 and another in May 2014. If we drop 250 and then get to 1900+, I think the 1900+ high will be one of those 2 dates. Seems too much to happen by November but I guess its possible. Thing is, May 2014 is just outside 60 months at 62.