Guesstimates on July 8, 2013

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1629-1644. The ES put in a bullish day Friday in response to the bearish employment number and has spent most of the night session trading above the .618 retracement (at 1632) of the May-June drop.  A close today above 1632 would make me defer my down-to-1500 scenario and start looking for a move above the 1700 level.

QQQ:  Downside target is 70.00 has been reached but there is still no sign of a low. Next support is 66.50.  

TNX (ten year note yield): The upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.85 % but I think the market will move past this level to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: Support at 1.2950 was broken decisively on the ECB interest rate guidance. I think the market is now headed for 1.2400.  

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has held support at 94.50. The next upside target is 107.00.

August Crude:  Resistance above the market is at 103. As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.

August Gold:  Gold has dropped a little below the 1200-50 target zone. There is short term support near 1160 and I think a rally of$200-300 is like to start soon.    

September Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 has been reached and exceeded. The 18.00 level is now support and I expect a rally to 24.00 or so to begin soon.

Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.

Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.