Guesstimates on April 30, 2014

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1869-1882. I believe the ES is headed above 1892. Should the market instead start accepting prices below 1850 I will conclude that it is headed for 1800 or lower.

QQQ:  Upside target is 95.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro is headed for 1.42.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

June Crude:  Crude spent several days trading mostly above 103 resistance but so far has not spent much time trading above its last high at 104.48. A close above that high would mean the market is headed for 111. In the meantime I am sticking with my bearish stance.

June Gold:  Resistance above the market is at 1320 and gold has now broken below its March low. Downside target is 1210.

July Silver: Resistance above the market is at 20.25. Silver is headed for 13.00.

Google:  Support at 538 has failed and is now resistance above the market. This makes a drop to 450-475 likely.

Apple:  AAPL rallied strongly on earnings/stock buyback news and so far has continued upward to 595. My 600-610 target zone is nearby and I think AAPL is likely to stall there and then drop back to 540-550.

Guesstimates on April 29, 2014

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1867-1882. I believe the ES is headed above 1892. Should the market instead start accepting prices below 1850 I will conclude that it is headed for 1800 or lower.

QQQ:  Upside target is 95.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: The reaction is over and the euro is headed for 1.42.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

June Crude:  Crude spent several days trading mostly above 103 resistance but so far has not spent much time trading above its last high at 104.48. A close above that high would mean the market is headed for 111. In the meantime I am sticking with my bearish stance.

June Gold:  Resistance above the market is at 1320 and gold has now broken below its March low. Downside target is 1210.

May Silver: Resistance above the market is at 20.25. Silver is headed for 13.00.

Google:  Support at 538 has failed and this makes a drop to 450-475 likely.

Apple:  AAPL rallied strongly on earnings/stock buyback news and so far has continued upward to 595. My 600-610 target zone is nearby and I think AAPL is likely to stall there and then drop back to 540-550.

Guesstimates on April 28, 2014

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1862-74. I believe the ES is headed above 1892. Should the market instead start accepting prices below 1850 I will conclude that it is headed for 1800 or lower.

QQQ:  Upside target is 95.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: The reaction is over and the euro is headed for 1.42.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

June Crude:  Crude spent several days trading mostly above 103 resistance but so far has not spent much time trading above its last high at 104.48. A close above that high would mean the market is headed for 111. In the meantime I am sticking with my bearish stance.

June Gold:  Resistance above the market is at 1320 and gold has now broken below its March low. Downside target is 1210.

May Silver: Resistance above the market is at 20.25. Silver is headed for 13.00.

Google:  Support is at 538 and if this fails a drop to 450-475 is likely.

Apple:  AAPL rallied strongly on earnings/stock buyback news. This will provide a good test of bullish convictions. Support is at 530 and as long as it holds AAPL should rally to 600 before turning lower once more.