Guesstimates on April 16, 2014

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1840-1858. The midpoint of the drop from 1892.50 is 1848. If the ES spends most of a day session above that level I would conclude that the market is headed to new highs.

QQQ:  Downside target is 83.50. More weakness than that would probably break the 200 day moving average which would be a very bearish development.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: The reaction is over and the euro is headed for 1.42.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

May Crude:  If crude has spent several days trading mostly above 103 resistance but so far has not spent much time trading above its last high at 104.48. A close above that high would mean the market is headed for 111.

June Gold:  Resistance above the market is at 1320. A couple of closes above there would turn me bullish.

May Silver: Resistance above the market is at 20.25. A couple of closes above there would turn me bullish.

Google:  Support is at 538 and if this fails a drop to 450-475 is likely.

Apple:  AAPL has been acting weaker than the market during 2014. A drop below its 200 day moving average, currently at 508, now seems likely. If it happens AAPL will be headed for 300 or lower.