Monday, April 07, 2014

Guesstimates on April 7, 2014

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1845-1859. The ES is headed lower to 1834 and maybe to 1823, the last two significant low points preceding Fridays 1892.50 high. Any more weakness than that would mean that a much bigger drop is underway, one which would probably run 110- 150 points.
QQQ:  Downside target is 83.50. More weakness than that would probably break the 200 day moving average, a very bearish development.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: I expect this reaction to end near 1.36.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
May Crude:  Resistance above the market is at 103. Downside target is 92 but I think that may well be only the first stopping point in a bigger decline.
June Gold:  Support at 1310 has failed. This means that gold is headed for 1050.
May Silver: Support is at 20.00 has failed. Silver is headed for 13.00.  
Google:  Support is at 538 and if this fails a drop to 450-475 is likely.
Apple:  A drop below its 200 day moving average, currently at 502, would be very bearish. Whether or not AAPL can make it to 600 before dropping below that moving average will depend on whether or not the trend in the general market had turned downward.

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