Friday, April 11, 2014

Guesstimates on April 11, 2014

June S&P E-mini Futures: The ES collapsed yesterday without spending much time above 1861. I think a drop of at least 110-150 points is underway. Today’s range estimate is 1806-1826.
QQQ:  Downside target is 83.50. More weakness than that would probably break the 200 day moving average, a very bearish development.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The reaction is over and the euro is headed for 1.42.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
May Crude:  If crude spends a day trading above 103 resistance I will look for continuation up to 111.
June Gold:  Resistance above the market is at 1320. A couple of closes above there would turn me bullish. .
May Silver: Resistance above the market is at 20.25. A couple of closes above there would turn me bullish.
Google:  Support is at 538 and if this fails a drop to 450-475 is likely.
Apple:  A drop below its 200 day moving average, currently at 506, would be very bearish. Whether or not AAPL can make it to 600 before dropping below that moving average will depend on whether or not the trend in the general market had turned downward.

1 comment:

pursuitist said...

No top means more upside. 10-11% correction (Nasdaq 3900-3940) and then rocket ship NORTH. A market that self-regulates this prudently (high cash/low leverage)attracts continued dovishness from the Fed. Until buying really catches fire: When your barber gives you stock tips and nuns are whispering about their favorite biotech = time to sell. Long in the tooth or not--a five year bull market warrants a FINALE.