Monday, December 15, 2014

Guesstimates on December 15, 2014

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1993-2015. It looks like the ES is headed down to 1970-75. But I see no sign that the bull market has ended and expect the ES to hold above its 200 day moving average, currently at 1939.
QQQ: Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has reached 122. Support is now at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
January Crude:   Crude dropped as low as 56.25 last night, just below support at 57-59. I now expect a rally which should carry the market up $10-20. I still think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33.
February Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100 with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target. Resistance above the market is 1240.
March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. Resistance is at 17.60.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Support at 40 has been decisively broken. Twitter is in a bear market which is likely to carry it to 20.
Alibaba: Next upside target is 135.  Support is at 102-104.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 270.

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