Monday, December 08, 2014

Guesstimates on December 8, 2014

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2066-77. I see no sign that the move up from the October low at 1813 is over but I do think a drop of at least 26-27 and maybe of 50 points is right around the corner.
QQQ: Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has reached 122. Support is now at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
January Crude:   Crude has dropped as low as 63.72, right in the middle of what I see as its “fair value” zone. I think the market will now take a breath and probably rally $10-20. I still think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33.
February Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100 with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target. Resistance above the market is 1200-10.
March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Upside target is 66. Support is at 40.
Alibaba: Next upside target is 130.  Support is at 102-104.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 270.

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