Guesstimates on January 30, 2015

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1997-2022. There have been four lows in the 1960-1985 zone during the past six weeks. For this reason any drop visibly below 1960 would have very bearish long term implications.    

QQQ: Support is at 99.00. The next step up should carry to 107.00

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the current flight to quality has dropped the note yield to 1.65% so far. I think the yield will not go below the historical low at 1.39% and estimate that the market will hold support at 1.60%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s quantitative easing program will drop the euro below 1.00 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1.17.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.

March Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Resistance above the market is at 55.

February Gold:  Gold is headed up to 1350. Support is at 1240. I remain long term bearish with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target.

March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. I think silver has a shot at 19.60. Meantime support is at 16.90.

Google:  GOOGL is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300. Resistance above the market is at 540.

Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.

Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.

Twitter: Support at 40 has been decisively broken. Twitter is in a bear market which is likely to carry it to 20.

Alibaba: Support is at 98 has been broken decisively. I think BABA is headed for 84 and then 68.

Visa: Visa is headed up to 290. Support is at 250.

Guesstimates on January 29, 2015

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1984-2015. There have been three lows in the 1960-1985 zone during the past six weeks. I am expecting another such low, but any drop visibly below 1960 would have very bearish long term implications.    

QQQ: Support is at 99.00. The next step up should carry to 107.00

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the current flight to quality has dropped the note yield to 1.70% so far. I think the yield will not go below the historical low at 1.39% and estimate that the market will hold support at 1.60%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s quantitative easing program will drop the euro below 1.00 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1.17.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.

March Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Resistance above the market is at 55.

February Gold:  Gold is headed up to 1350. Support is at 1240. I remain long term bearish with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target.

March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. I think silver has a shot at 19.60. Meantime support is at 16.90.

Google:  GOOGL is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300. Resistance above the market is at 540.

Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.

Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.

Twitter: Support at 40 has been decisively broken. Twitter is in a bear market which is likely to carry it to 20.

Alibaba: Support is at 98 has been broken decisively. I think BABA is headed for 84 and then 68.

Visa: Visa is headed up to 290. Support is at 250.

stocks, gold, silver, and oil

I am still bullish on world stock markets and in particular on the US market. The top chart shows the S&P 500 index which I think has a good shot at moving above the 2200 level during the next few months. But there is a possible problem visible in this chart.

You can see that the index has traded sideways for near two months now in a range between 1973 and 2093 (green rectangle). There have been many up and down swings within this range which itself stands at the top of a nearly six year old bull market. I think the S&P will move upward out of this range but if I am wrong and instead a downside breakout develops we would probably be seeing the start of a bear market. This extensive sideways action followed by a downside breakout would lead me to expect a drop of 20-30% from the bull market top (at least). The bearish implication of a downside breakout would be emphasized because it would coincide with a drop below the 200 day moving average (red line).

I want to emphasize that I think a bearish downside breakout from this trading range is unlikely. But in markets as in life it is always wise to think ahead so as to be mentally prepared for a dramatic change in conditions.

The middle two charts are daily charts of gold and silver. I remain long term bearish on both. But you can see that gold has crept above its 200 day moving average and that silver has rallied to its 200 day average after nearly reaching my long term $13 downside target. I think both markets have more to go on the upside with gold likely to hit 1350 and silver 19.50. Should the US stock market roll over and drop below S&P 1960 I think both gold and silver will move upward sharply in a "flight to quality" bull market. But as I said above I think this scenario is less likely that a continuation of the gold and silver bear markets.

The bottom chart is a monthly chart of West Texas crude oil futures. Today crude is trading near $44 after a precipitous drop during the past few months. The 2008 low was $33 and I think the market will try for that level before a sustained turn upward begins.

Guesstimates on January 28, 2015

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2016-2052. It looks like strong support in the 2016-2020 range held yesterday and that the ES is now on its way into the 2080-90 zone.   

QQQ: Support is at 99.00. The next step up should carry to 107.00

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the current flight to quality has dropped the note yield to 1.70% so far. I think the yield will not go below the historical low at 1.39% and estimate that the market will hold support at 1.60%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s quantitative easing program will drop the euro below 1.00 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1.17.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.

March Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Resistance above the market is at 55.

February Gold:  Resistance at 1275 has been broken. Gold is headed up to 1350. I remain long term bearish with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target.

March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. Resistance is now at 18.40.

Google:  GOOGL is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300. Resistance above the market is at 540.

Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.

Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.

Twitter: Support at 40 has been decisively broken. Twitter is in a bear market which is likely to carry it to 20.

Alibaba: Next upside target is 135.  Support is at 98.

Visa: Visa is headed up to 290. Support is at 250.