Guesstimates on February 27, 2015

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2105-2118. The market is headed above the 2200 level over the next couple of months.

QQQ: The current rally should carry to 112.00

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the flight to quality dropped the note yield to 1.65%. I think that low will hold and that the market is now headed up to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s quantitative easing program will drop the euro below 1.00 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1.17.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.

April Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Resistance above the market is at 55.

April Gold:  The odds favor continuation downward to 1040 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1230.

May Silver: I think silver is headed for 13.00.

Google:  GOOGL is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300. Resistance above the market is at 540. If GOOGL holds above 550 for a few days I will switch back to the bull column.

Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. New upside target is 140 but 160 should not be far behind.

Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.

Twitter: Twitter has reestablished itself above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this a bullish development and now expect TWTR to move up to 70.

Alibaba: BABA has reached 84 and after a rally back to 90 should then drop to 68.

Visa: Visa is headed up to 290. Support is at 250.

Guesstimates on February 26, 2015

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2111-2121. The market is headed above the 2200 level over the next couple of months.

QQQ: The current rally should carry to 112.00

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the flight to quality dropped the note yield to 1.65%. I think that low will hold and that the market is now headed up to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s quantitative easing program will drop the euro below 1.00 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1.17.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.

April Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Resistance above the market is at 55.

April Gold:  The odds favor continuation downward to 1040 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1230.

March Silver: I think silver is headed for 13.00.

Google:  GOOGL is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300. Resistance above the market is at 540. If GOOGL holds above 550 for a few days I will switch back to the bull column.

Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. New upside target is 140 but 160 should not be far behind.

Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.

Twitter: Twitter has reestablished itself above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this a bullish development and now expect TWTR to move up to 70.

Alibaba: BABA has reached 84 and after a rally back to 90 should then drop to 68.

Visa: Visa is headed up to 290. Support is at 250.

update

Here are charts of the six stocks I have been following on this blog. They are displayed in the order of technical strength with the strongest a the top.

Apple and Visa are still two of this bull market's leaders. I expect AAPL to soon reach 140 but I think 160 is within reach over the next couple of months. Visa is headed for 290 or so.

Twitter turned bullish by gapping back above its 200 day moving average (red line on all the charts). I think TWTR will rally into the 66-70 range but stay below its all-time high near 75.

Google is currently trading below its 200 day moving average but above its 50 day average (green line). GOOGL shows a sequence of higher lows which suggest it is going to reestablish itself above the 550 level. If it does and then moves above its 200 day moving average (currently 559) I will turn bullish on this stock.

Alibaba is the weakest of these six stocks and is currently trading near its historical low of 84.  I think this drop will continue and BABA is likely to fall below its IPO price of 68.

The broader US market averages continue to creep higher. I think the bull market which began in March of 2009, six years ago, has further to go. As I explained a couple of weeks ago my Lindsay methods are suggesting an important top in the April-May time frame. By that time I think the S&P will be trading near 2250. Regardless of whether the bull market ends then and there I do think a drop of at least 10-15% will become very likely.

Guesstimates on February 25, 2015

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2107-2121. The market is headed above the 2200 level over the next couple of months.

QQQ: The current rally should carry to 112.00

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the flight to quality dropped the note yield to 1.65%. I think that low will hold and that the market is now headed up to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s quantitative easing program will drop the euro below 1.00 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1.17.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.

April Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Resistance above the market is at 55.

April Gold:  Gold has dropped well below the 1220 midpoint of its rally. This puts me back in the bear column for the intermediate term trend. The odds now favor continuation downward to 1040 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1230.

March Silver: I think silver is headed for 13.00.

Google:  GOOGL is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300. Resistance above the market is at 540. If GOOGL holds above 550 for a few days I will switch back to the bull column.

Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. New upside target is 140.

Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.

Twitter: Twitter has reestablished itself above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this a bullish development and now expect TWTR to move up to 70.

Alibaba: BABA has reached 84 and after a rally back to 90 should then drop to 68.

Visa: Visa is headed up to 290. Support is at 250.