Thursday, July 02, 2015

Guesstimates on July 2, 2015

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2067-83. The 200 day moving average stands at 2045 in the ES. I will stay generally bullish unless and until the ES starts spending time below that level. I think the failure of the market to drop much below its Sunday night 2054 low in the face of bad news from Greece is a sign of strength and this leads me to believe this correction may well be over.
QQQ:  Upside target is 113.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar:  The Greek banking crisis makes it likely that the ECB will pursue an even more aggressive QE policy which has bearish long run implications. Shorter term, however, the picture is bullish if the Euro can hold above 1.10. Then I think will continue upward into the 1.18-1.20 zone. Otherwise the bear market has already resumed and will put the Euro below 1.00.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone while 127 is near term resistance.
August Crude:  I am beginning to suspect that the bear market is oil is over and that this long trading range is a precursor to a sustained advance.
August Gold:  I am beginning to suspect that this long trading range is the precursor to an extended advance and that the bear market is gold may be over.
September Silver: I think the bear market in silver may be over.
Google:  I think the longer term trend is upward and expect GOOGL to hit 670.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. New upside target is 140 but 160 should not be far behind. Support is at 121.
Facebook: Upside target is 90 and was nearly reached. Support is 80.
Twitter: I still expect TWTR to move up to 70. Support is at 35.
Alibaba: BABA has broken support at 85 and I think it is now on its way to 70.
Visa: Upside target is 72. Support is 63.

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