Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Guesstimates on July 15, 2015

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2097-2110. I think the move above the recent tops in the 2074-79 range is the start of an upswing which will carry to new bull market highs.
QQQ:  Upside target is 113.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar:  The market is struggling to hold above the 1.10 support level. If it succeeds I think a resolution of the Greek crisis will send the Euro up to 1.17 or so. But the Greek banking system is in bad shape and it is likely that the ECB will pursue an even more aggressive QE policy going forward. This has long run bearish implications which lead me to expect a Euro at 1.00 or below during the coming months.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone while 127-28 is near term resistance.
August Crude:  I am beginning to suspect that the bear market is oil is over and that this long trading range is a precursor to a sustained advance.
August Gold:  I am beginning to suspect that this long trading range is the precursor to an extended advance and that the bear market is gold may be over.
September Silver: I think the bear market in silver may be over.
Google:  I think the longer term trend is upward and expect GOOGL to hit 670.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Support is at 121.
Facebook: Upside target at 90 was nearly reached. Support is 80.
Twitter: I still expect TWTR to move up to 70. Support is at 35.
Alibaba: BABA has broken support at 85 and I think it is now on its way to 70.
Visa: Upside target is 72. Support is 63.

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