Wednesday, December 28, 2016

Gueistimates on December 28, 2016

March S&P E-mini Futures: The ES is creeping towards the high of its 2 week trading range between 2243 and 2273, behavior which typically precedes an upside breakout. In any event support in the 2235-43 range is strong so any drop below 2243 is likely to be brief.  Moreover, the ES is still on course to reach one or both of the 2298 and 2345 upside targets by early next year.
QQQ:  The 120.50 level is strong resistance since it is the historical high which the Q’s established in March of 2000. I expect this average to eventually move above that level to 125 and probably higher than that in 2017.  
TNX (ten year note yield): I think a push up into the 2.85-3.00% zone is likely before the longer term up trend in yields pauses. The 10 year yield is now well above its 200 day moving average which suggests that a sustained rise in yields is underway. I think this paradoxically is a very bullish omen for world stock markets.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.
Dollar-Yen: A new bull market is underway. Support now is at 112. Upside target is 126-27 then 136
West Texas Crude Oil: Crude is in a bull market. Support is now 45. Next upside target is 56-58.
February Gold:  Gold is headed back to its 1035 low and quite possibly lower.
March Silver: Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.
Google: Support is 675. Upside target is 880.
Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. If it is AAPL is on its way to 135.
Facebook: Support at 112. Next upside target is 145.
Twitter: Breakout support at 20 is likely to stop the current rally. TWTR is headed for 10.00.
Alibaba: The 85-90 zone is strong support and I expect BABA to swing up to 125 from there.
Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.

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