Thursday, December 08, 2016

Guesstimates on December 8, 2016

December S&P E-mini Futures: Yesterday the ES reached my year-end target at 2238 in an impressive show of strength on no news to speak of. The market will probably stall in the 2240-50 range and then drop to support at 2215. From there another leg up is likely  to start. Upside targets are now 2298 and 2345.
QQQ:  The 120 level is strong resistance since it is the historical high which the Q’s reached in March of 2000. I expect this average to eventually move above that level to 125 and probably higher than that eventually.  
TNX (ten year note yield): The initial 2.50% target has nearly been reached with a 2.49% print so far. However I think a push up into the 2.85-3.00% zone is likely before the longer term up trend in yields pauses. The 10 year yield is now well above its 200 day moving average which suggests that a sustained rise in yields is underway. I think this paradoxically is a very bullish omen for world stock markets.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.
Dollar-Yen: A new bull market is underway. Support now is at 108. Upside target is 126-27 then 136
January Crude: Crude is in a bull market. Support is still at 40-41. Next upside target is 56-58.
February Gold:  Gold is headed back to its 1035 low and quite possibly lower.
March Silver: The support level at 17.00 has failed. Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.
Google: Support is 675. Upside target is 880.
Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. If it is AAPL is on its way to 135.
Facebook: Support at 112. Next upside target is 145.
Twitter: Breakout support at 20 is likely to stop the current rally. TWTR is headed for 10.00.
Alibaba: The 85-90 zone is strong support and I expect BABA to swing up to 125 from there.
Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.

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