Guesstimates on February 1, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1060-1080. This correction should end today and the market will soon begin a move that will carry it to 1200 over the next two or three months.

QQQ: This corrective phase should be followed by a rally to 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 144.00. Support is at 137.50. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1170. Any strength above that level would mean that the market is instead headed for 1250.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 19.40.

Google: The next significant move should take GOOG above 700.

Guesstimates on January 29, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1074-1094. The electronic low early this morning was 1070.50. There is still a 50-50 chance that the market will hit 1060 before a sustained rally starts, but I am expecting the correction to end today or Monday. I also expect to see the ES trade up above 1200 during the next couple of months.

QQQ: This corrective phase should be followed by a rally to 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 144.00. Support is at 137.50. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1170. Any strength above that level would mean that the market is instead headed for 1250.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 19.40.

Google: Support is at 545. The next significant move should take GOOG above 700.

Nearly done

Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. I went long this morning figuring that there was a reasonable chance that yesterday's low ended the correction. But sellers took over the market and as you can see the ES has dropped to 1075, the first target level I pointed out a couple of days ago. At 1075 the drop from the 1148 top is as big as the October-November 2009 reaction from 1099 to 1026 (blue dash rectangle). At the secondary target of 1057 (solid blue rectangle) the current correction would equal the June-July 2009 drop.

I think the ES is about to begin a sustained rally. The first bullish sign would be a move above midpoint resistance (purple dotted line) and the descending red dash trend line.

As you know I think the ES will reach the 1200 level in the next couple of months.

sold long unit at 1089.25

Long one unit at 1092.25

Guesstimates on January 28, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1092-1105. I can't tell whether yesterday's low ended the correction or whether instead the ES will take out that low by a few points before a sustained rally begins. Strength on good volume above the 1105 level will mean that yesterday's low will hold. I expect to see the ES trade up above 1200 during the next couple of months.

QQQ: This corrective phase should be followed by a rally to 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 144.00. Support is at 137.50. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1170. Any strength above that level would mean that the market is instead headed for 1250.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 19.40.

Google: Support is at 545. The next significant move should take GOOG above 700.

Guesstimates on January 27, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is again 1076-1094. I am looking for a low this week either near 1075 or near 1058. Once the low has been established I expect to see the ES trade up above 1200 during the next couple of months.

QQQ: This corrective phase should end near 43.00 and be followed by a rally to 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 144.00. Support is at 137.50. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1170. Any strength above that level would mean that the market is instead headed for 1250.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 19.40.

Google: Support is at 545. The next significant move should take GOOG above 700.

Update

Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. I have drawn the progression of boxes from the start of the correction. Each is 12-15 points from top to bottom. The market has been a little stronger today than I initially expected. But it is trading near the top of its current box. I think another break will start later today and carry the ES down to a low near the bottom of the next box. This low should be in place this week and a rally to 1200 will be the next development.

Guesstimates on January 26, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1076-1094. I am looking for a low this week either near 1075 or near 1058. Once the low has been established I expect to see the ES trade up above 1200 during the next couple of months.

QQQ: This corrective phase should end near 43.00 and be followed by a rally to 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 144.00. Support is at 137.50. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1170. Any strength above that level would mean that the market is instead headed for 1250.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 19.40.

Google: Support is at 545. The next significant move should take GOOG above 700.

sold long unit at 1097.00

Update

Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. The market reached my initial 1090 target for the correction (green dash line) in only three days. I think there is more to go on the downside. A break as big as the October-November correction would carry the market down to 1075 (blue dash rectangle). A break as big as the June-July 2009 drop would end near 1058 (solid blue rectangle). I think one of these two downside targets will be reached within the next week. Meantime resistance above the market is in the 1104-08 zone.

Once this drop is complete I expect a strong rally to the 1200 level.

Long one unit at 1091.75

Guesstimates on January 25, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1088-1104. The 1090 target for this corrective phase was hit Friday. I think there is still more to go on the downside. However, the market will probably make its low near 1075 later this week. Once the low has been established I expect to see the ES trade up above 1200 during the subsequent couple of months.

QQQ: This corrective phase should end near 43.00 and be followed by a rally to 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 144.00. Support is at 137.50. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1170. Any strength above that level would mean that the market is instead headed for 1250.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 19.40.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support is now at 545.

sold long unit at 1110.25

Long one unit at 1101.50

Guesstimates on January 22, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1100-1118. This corrective phase will probably end near 1090. Once it is over I expect to see the ES trade up above 1200 during the subsequent couple of months.

QQQ: Support is at 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 146.50. The next swing downwards should carry to 137.50. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: Crude has rallied more than I expected but I still think the next big move will be downward to 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is now at 1170. Any strength above that level would mean that the market is instead headed for 1250.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 19.40.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support is now at 545.

Update

Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. As you can see a supply shock this morning (red arrows and dash oval) created a high volume breakout from the trading range of the past week (highest blue rectangle). This trading range defined a box about 18 points high. The market has since dropped to the bottom of the next box and a modest rally of 6-10 points, to the midpoint of the box, would be normal now. I think this entire correction will carry the ES to the bottom of the third box down which is roughly the 1090 level.

I expect this corrective phase to be complete by the end of next week. The subsequent rally should carry the ES to 1200.

Guesstimates on January 21, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1124-1136. I still think a reaction to 1110 and more probably to 1090 is underway. Once it is over I expect to see the ES trade up above 1200 during the subsequent couple of months.

QQQ: Support is at 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 146.50. The next swing downwards should carry to 137.50. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: Crude has rallied more than I expected but I still think the next big move will be downward to 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is now at 1170. Any strength above that level would mean that the market is instead headed for 1250.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 19.40.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support is now at 565.

quick update

The e-minis have retraced all of yesterday's day session rally. This is bearish action and means the market is headed for 1110 and probably for 1090.

sold long unit at 1132.00