Wednesday, January 20, 2010

quick update

The e-minis have retraced all of yesterday's day session rally. This is bearish action and means the market is headed for 1110 and probably for 1090.


dcatlowpj said...

Good call, Carl..I shorted at 1136 and rode it down to support. Pivot one.

BullandBearWise said...

Ugly whipsaw over the last two days. This market's starting to take on a different tone.

PM said...

Hi Carl,

So much for canceling all corrections until further notice. I have a confirmed sell signal with a close today below 1127.50. Now, provided the market actually moves lower, the first lower price where I would expect buying is at 1117.30 and then again at 1088.10, give or take a few ticks at each level.


Kindest regards,


Kishore said...

Trends, bull or bear, are stubborn as a mule. And Bulls are more stubborn than bears.

Hill tops are generally rolling and valleys are generally sharp.

The current whip-saws are temper tantrums of a raging bull just before it is about to die.

However, a confirmation of a trend change on daily charts is what I will wait for before going short.

Shlomo said...

Amazing. A few days ago I sensed some capitulation of the bears, but now they are back in full force. Everyone is dying to short a strongly trending market based on their "opinion" about the macro situation. Hasn't Carl taught you guys something?

jeff said...

I agree that the 1095-1100 range will be tested and there is a possbility that we can test the 1200-1230 range. However, if we are unable to bounce off of the 1095 area and fall or after bouncing, are not able to go above 1120 or so, this top is in and Wave C down to 400-450 is underway.

Unlike Carl, I don't see

dcatlowpj said...

Shlomo, don't confuse scalpers here with Swing traders....I am scalping right now riding 2 to 4 point moves....that is relatively easy with NO overnight holds.

I commented earlier that Carl's long was a little early based on pure Price Action alone. I think he may have deleted it. Anyway, at 36.25, it looked early for a reversal was clearly, today's action ONLY, a short today.

I absolutely cherry pick what I read here and the true cherries are in the ranges..>Carl is very smart there...I am not his type of trader as I am looking for bottoms and tops, and range reactions for scalps...

Bill said...

The pattern of the market over the last few weeks has consistently been that after a 1-day sell off the market recovers the next day. This pattern is still in place until proven otherwise.

And by the same token after a 1- day rally (1% or over) the market has been reversing the next day.

It appears to me that until we get a run-up in stocks with a few consecutive days of follow-up we will not see any meaningful correction. The most we'll get to see is a a day like today, but that's as bad as it can get for now.

jeff said...

another reversal this afternoon with the automated buy programs. at minimum, i expect those unfilled gaps from yesterday's close will be filled before we fall hard as Carl suggests.

until this market actually moves, it's best to go long around 1130 and go short around 1150. perhaps as carl has suggested, this is the trading box that will occur until the overbought conditions subside.

plus, for all of those 1095 bounce 1200 target callers, this seems to be very obvious to the mainstream, which means, in contrarian perspectives, neither will occur and we'll need to look for alternative scenarios.

Wags94596 said...

The market had a decent close today and should Bulls take control on Thursday I look for a move that pushes up to a slightly higher high to terminate this diagonal pattern.

E said...

What a great forum and no shortage of opinions.

At least volatility has come in; a good thing for traders.

Staying as mentally flexible as possible is what I try to do, and that is not necessarily as easy to do as it sounds.

The more we invest in a singular idea, the more we tend to defend it.

It is impossible to guess every wiggle,and we cannot make money on the sidelines.

Catch the meat of the move and be happy, step by step, box by box.