Friday, January 08, 2010

Guesstimates on January 8, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1125-1138. The employment number knocked the ES down about 9 points but no aggressive selling has developed yet. Increasing volume on a break below 1130 would be a sign that a reaction of 30-40 points is underway. Support then would be found in the 1100-1110 zone. In any event I still expect the market to reach the 1170 level during the next month.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. My best guess is that 140 will be only temporary support and that the market will drop to 125 over the next couple of months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway.

February Crude: Crude has rallied more than I expected but I still think the next big move will be downward to 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market still stands at 1125.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support is now at 585.


d said...


Gold is over the resistance you mention, you may want to change the nuumbers

Chaya said...

such a strange / dull reaction to widely expected NFP data point with a widely unexpected number. would be great to hear your perspective/context Carl.