Thursday, January 07, 2010

Guesstimates on January 7, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1122-1132. After the employment number comes out tomorrow this market will probably begin a reaction of 30-50 points. Even so, I expect the market to reach the 1170 level during the next month.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. My best guess is that 140 will be only temporary support and that the market will drop to 125 over the next couple of months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway.

February Crude: Crude has rallied more than I expected but I still think the next big move will be downward to 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market still stands at 1125.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support is now at 585.


Win said...

I have been thinking this (about the employment number) for 3 days! But your blog is so popular that I wonder if you will influence the reaction just by predicting it!

Good luck today!


PM said...

Hi Carl,

It has become standard in these recent many months to expect the employment numbers to take the markets down, if only for a moment. I believe at some point, and I submit sooner than later, that the employment numbers may well be a positive surprise and refresh this rally for some time to come. It may well be the case of buying the rumor and then selling the news, but I think this market is so strong that any positive news on the unemployment front is going to launch this market with a mammoth rally of several hundred DOW points in a single trading day.


Kindest regards,


Win said...

Thanks for your feedback. I have considered your scenario, which is certainly possible. The recent boring market may well be waiting for that number, like a coiled spring.

However, at some point soon, a positive unemployment surprise may well cause the market to drop as well. When a market is overvalued, a negative reaction to positive surprises is explained thus: Traders feared that the "insert positive surprise here" would cause the Fed to tighten monetary policy sooner rather than later.

P/C ratio, to me, suggests that a correction in equities is close.

extrader said...

Happy New Year!

I see a rising wedge forming on the ES and after tomorrows jobs report we should have a breakout or breakdown out of this wedge!

My guess is that we will breakdown and fill that 1098 gap!

Good Luck

PM said...


I agree with you, which is why I offered the caveat of possibly buying the rumor and then selling the new. But frankly, I think in this case we're going to see these markets much higher through the middle of the second quarter before any sort of meaningful correction occurs.

Of course, my guess is as good as anyone's.

Enjoy the day.


Teich said...

Hi Carl.

1. Do you still think that the market is dull? Today's action was quite bullish as the market closed near the high of the day, having rejected the lows earlier.

I do think a lot of tomorrow's possibly good news is already priced into today's market action. This is opposite to last month's, where the market tanked into the close on the day before the NFP announcement.

2. I see that $NDX is dragging down $SPX (see the two long red daily bars on GOOG). Not sure if the latter will be able to lift up the former.