Monday, January 25, 2010

Guesstimates on January 25, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1088-1104. The 1090 target for this corrective phase was hit Friday. I think there is still more to go on the downside. However, the market will probably make its low near 1075 later this week. Once the low has been established I expect to see the ES trade up above 1200 during the subsequent couple of months.

QQQ: This corrective phase should end near 43.00 and be followed by a rally to 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 144.00. Support is at 137.50. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1170. Any strength above that level would mean that the market is instead headed for 1250.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 19.40.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support is now at 545.


Win said...


Thank you for your kind sharing. I can agree with a low around 1075, but am not so sure about new highs any more.

jeff said...


I think you're drinking the kool-aid my friend

while I fully expect a decent pullback, there are many intermediate indicators tha have rolled over

admittedly, if we see the s&p go back above the 50 dma (resistance that used to serve ss general support), I will reconsider your approach.

All the best