Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Guesstimates on January 27, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is again 1076-1094. I am looking for a low this week either near 1075 or near 1058. Once the low has been established I expect to see the ES trade up above 1200 during the next couple of months.

QQQ: This corrective phase should end near 43.00 and be followed by a rally to 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 144.00. Support is at 137.50. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

March Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1170. Any strength above that level would mean that the market is instead headed for 1250.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 19.40.

Google: Support is at 545. The next significant move should take GOOG above 700.

5 comments:

Kishore said...

So far, the current sell-off does not look much different from the sell-offs in July and November.

However, recovery from the current sell-off may reveal more about the longer-term future of this market.

It is quite possible that the long wave up, 3 or 5, will get extended. If so, this could prove that the rally from March 2009 is more than a bear market rally. Maybe, we will have to coin a new term for it, like "FED printing gone wild rally." In that case, "there is no tomorrow" anyways.

DMA Trader said...

Outstanding predictions on market movement in the last months.

Impressive work.

jeff said...

reached a temporary bottom at 1083(significant support) to finishe Wave I circle. I fully expect a retracement up to the 50 DMA in the ensuing week to complete Wave II circle before the Wave III process begins down. Wave III should be even more hard selling than Wave I circle. Targets - 1120 for Wave II circle and 1020 for Wave III circle.

I expect to this pattern to occur over the next 30 days.

The difference between mine and Carls' analysis I'm looking at much longer-term indicators such as the 30 day advance/decline, the rolling over of the weekly MACD and the rolling over the weekly Slow Stochastics, and you can draw a clear line from the 2007 and 2008highs to 1150. During all of the other previous dips and run-ups, each of these intermediate indicators were still going up; however, during this last go dip, they all turned down.

And when I combine basic Elliott Waves, the music is on the wall that Wave B from March 2009 is done and Wave C down has just began.

P said...

Would be interesting if you would consider 1078.5 that we hit today to complete the down leg you've been anticipating. If sits in the middle of the box you were expecting ES to touch the bottom of. It has since moved to the middle of the next box up, exceeding a bit your top of range today, although for not much time.

Thanks for helping me see /ES movements in boxes, Carl. Been going through your previous posts and gathering a list of indicators you use to foresee markets. And so far, I am pretty much blown away by the accuracy AND the risk management of blog trades.

Thanks again!
PA

Adam said...

Carl

update on GOOG? has it broken support of 545 or still holding in that general support range?

thanks, adam