Wednesday, January 06, 2010

Guesstimates on January 6, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1125-1135. I think the market is headed for 1143 over the next week or so. I also expect the market to reach the 1170 level during the next month.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. My best guess is that 140 will be only temporary support and that the market will drop to 125 over the next couple of months.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has moved above the 91.00 level and this means that a rally to 100.00 is underway.

February Crude: Crude has rallied more than I expected but I still think the next big move will be downward to 50.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1125.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support remains at 565.

1 comment:

Kishore said...

Just because the market has been going up since March 2009, does it mean that it is an onset of a secular bull market?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rosie-why-not-onset-new-secular-bull-market

If it not the onset of a secular bull market, an is, instead a correction to the drop till March 2009, then we can expect a big drop in the market as continuation of the bear market.

However, whether it is a secular bull market or a secular bear market should not mean much to day traders. But for position traders, it does not make any sense to go or stay long, for long.