Wednesday, June 22, 2005

Bonds and 10Year Notes

The charts above show my updated estimates of the hourly price boxes for the t-bond and 10 year notes futures.

The boxes in the bonds are 38 ticks high. Today the market has reached resistance at the top of the second box and a reaction of 1/2 box or even 1 box would be normal. However I think the market will reach the 1/2 point of the next box up at 118-25 before it drops below 117 again.
Remember that the intermediate term trend is still upward and that this market is likely to make it into the 121-122 range by the end of the summer.

The boxes in the notes are 20 ticks high. This market has been a bit stronger than I expected as the curve has steepened today. I think it will pause near 113-22, the 1/2 point of the next box and then react 1/2 box or 1 box before resuming a move to 114-00 or 114-10. By the end of the summer I think the 10 year notes will have made it pretty close to 116.

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