Saturday, June 18, 2005

It's Alive !!!

It has been my conviction that the March 2005 top in West Texas crude at 58.24 would hold and that the market would drop to $25 or so over the next two years.

The July 2005 contract made new highs Friday and closed above 58.24 so, contrary to my previous analysis, the bull market still lives!

Where will the market stop its move up? The daily chart above shows some of the division points of the second long term price box in West Texas Crude. These long term boxes are $30 high and start from the closing low in April 1986 at 10.40. My best guess now is that crude will reach the 63.00 level which is the ¾ division point of its current long term box.

The hourly chart above shows the short term price boxes in August Crude. Late Friday the market reached the top of a box at 59.50 and will probably react 75 to 150 points from that level. I think the uptrend from the 49.00 level will continue until the market reaches the 62.50 level, the top of the next box.

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