Friday, August 04, 2006

Guesstimates on August 4, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: The market broke out of its 1270-88 trading range this morning on the employment number. It will probably rally to 1299, a little above my original 1296 target and then have another 10-20 reaction.

September Bonds: The bonds broke resistance at 108-20 on the employment number and will move up to 109-20 before another reaction sets in. The market is in the midst of a bigger rally into the 110-111 zone.  

September 10 Year Notes: The notes should rally to 106-28 before another reaction sets in . The market’s next stop after that will be 107-20.

Euro-US Dollar: The market through resistance at 128.30 this morning on the employment number. It should halt near 128.80 and then begin a drop to below 123.00.  

Dollar-Yen: I still think the yen will hold 114.30 support. The next development will be a rally to 120.00. The yen should reach 130 over the next year.

September Crude: Downside target is 68.00 and resistance above the market is at 75.90.

December Gold: Gold should reach the 700 level before a swing to below 500 begins.

September Silver: I now think silver will rally to 1270 before a swing to below the 900 level starts.

Google:  Support is at 364 and I think GOOG will soon move above its all time high of 475.  

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