Tuesday, August 22, 2006
Here is an hourly chart of the September S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this chart here.
In this morning's guesstimate I said that the drop from the early morning high of 1305.50 in electronic trading looked like the start of a third phase of a three phase correction. I estimated that the correction would carrry the market down to 1293 or so. In the event the market rallied again to 1305 in early trading but then broke to 1297.75 on the comments of two Fed presidents.
I think the market over-reacted to this minor news and the fact that yesterday's low was broken by only a point before a good rally began supports this view. I think that a three phase correction from Friday's high at 1307.75 in now over and that the market will trade into the 1309-12 zone over the next day or two.