Friday, August 04, 2006


Here is an hourly chart of the September S&P e-mini futures. I last commented on this chart here.

In this morning's guesstimate I said that I thought the market would exceed my original 1296 target and make it up to 1299 before breaking 10-20 points. In the event the high tick so far has been 1297.75 and the market afterward has dropped as low as 1280.50.

The reaction so far has been almost exactly as big as the reaction earlier this week from 1286 to 1270.25 so I think it is reasonable to expect a bounce upward to 1288 or so.

This bounce should be the second, upward phase of a three phase correction which I think will end near 1272 early next week. A drop from 1298 to 1272 would be a drop almost equal to the drop on July 20-21 from 1269 to 1243.50.

Once this brief corrective phase is complete I expect to see the market rally into the 1315-20 zone. I also think that by the end of the year we shall see the S&P's trading near 1420.

1 comment:

rufffen said...

Agree with the SP500 rally, although Id say topping action around 1310-1320 likely and a retrace to 1260-1280 levels before continuation towards your targets around 1400.

What I definately can't agree with though is EUR USD rates, USD is definately short on fuel, and since GBP refreshed YEAR HIGHS, Id expect EUR to do the same any time soon.
My targets on GBP USD are 9300 and on EUR USD 1 3080 then we will see a mild retrace and a continutation of the uptrend.

Can't ignore the fact that XAU SPOT GOLD is NEWS driven commodity now, and there is no way for a ceasefire (only temporary basis) in Mid-East crisis, and XAU will likely push towards 800 by year end
and Light Sweet will break the recent highs easy with the escallation of conflict.

I enjoy your blog, probably the only blog I have bookmarked aside from my own.