Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Guesstimates on December 23, 2008

Spiders - March S&P  E-mini Futures:  The market broke below the low of its 875-900 trading range yesterday but then rallied back above 870 on increased volume. I think this means that we shall see a move above 880 today and if we do I think yesterday’s 852 low will hold and support a rally to 945. I still think that that the 1000 level will be reached next month.  

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably make it to 145 before any substantial break begins.   

March 10 Year Notes: The 128 resistance will probably be broken and the notes should reach 130 before the market turns lower.   

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has found support near 138.00.  I think we shall see a move up to 152.00 or so before the bear market resumes.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is imminent.  

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The 40.00 level should be support in the February contract. I still think a rally into the 55-60 zone will be the next development.

GLD - February Gold: The 885 level should prove to be resistance and the market should soon resume its move down into the 550-600 range.  

SLV - March Silver: I still think this is a bear market.  Next resistance above the market is at 1165. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

6 comments:

PM said...

Hi Carl,

Needless to say, we just got back from shopping and my stop was hit for a minimal loss, so I'm flat. It does look more and more that we're beginning the next leg down.

Thanks.

Kindest regards,

PM

Anonymous said...

Carl
I just to say THANK YOU for your Blog. I find your efforts; extremely informative and educational, moreover I find your tolerance of difficult people impressive!

Merry Christmas and best wishes,

Jim

Anonymous said...

Carl,
Just want to say Merry Christmas and a very happy and healthy New Year! Thank you for taking us through your agony and ecstasy throughout the year. I appreciate it.

Kindest
Carlos

PM said...

Hi Carl,

A close below 827.20 any time this week, or at all, will give me another major sell signal.

If I don't post to you again this week, here's wishing you and yours a safe and Happy Holiday Season, and may all your dreams come true in the New Year.

Thanks for your great blog.

Kindest regards,

PM

Anonymous said...

www.marketkarma.blogspot.com also got a sell signal similar to this past May.

Anonymous said...

Guys, get ready for the "big" rally on the dow begining next week, or probably this friday. we will test 8260/80 and from there to 9600, there is about 2 or 3 days left for the begining, the key for the takeoff is to hit the support level everyone is waiting for, which is 8200. translate to the S&P