Friday, October 01, 2010

Guesstimates on October 1, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1139-1156. Next upside target is 1175. The ES will move above 1216 over the coming months.

QQQQ: Next upside target is 51.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has moved above the lower edge of the 135-40 target zone. There is as yet no sign of a top.

Dollar-Yen: Resistance above the market stands at 86.50. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

November Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: I don't see signs of a top so I am raising the upside target to 1380.

SLV - December Silver: The 22.50 level has nearly been reached but there are still no signs of a top. Next stop is 23.80.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

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