Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Guesstimates on October 20, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Yesterday's drop below the trading range low of 1162.50 looks like a shakeout. Today's range estimate is 1163-77. I think the ES is headed into the 1185-90 zone where it will stall once more. The ES will move above 1216 over the next few weeks.

QQQQ: Upside target at 51.00 has been reached. Support is at 49.00. Next upside target is 54.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has moved above 140 but shows no signs of a top. Next target is 143.50.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

November Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: Upside target is 1380 has been reached but the market still has the bit between its teeth. Next upside target is 1480.

SLV - December Silver: Upside target at 23.80 has been exceeded but there are no signs of a top. Next upside target is 26.50.

Google: The 475 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

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