Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Guesstimates on October 13, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1167-81. The upside target of 1175 has been reached. From these levels a break of 30-40 points lasting a few trading days should be the next development. The ES will move above 1216 over the coming months.

QQQQ: Upside target at 51.00 has nearly been reached. support is at 49.00. Next upside target is 54.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has moved close to the top of its 135-40 target zone. There is as yet no sign of a top so I think the 143 level is easily within reach.

Dollar-Yen: Resistance above the market stands at 86.50. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

November Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: Upside target is 1380.

SLV - December Silver: Upside target is 23.80.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

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