Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Guesstimates on July 13, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1311-1326. A sustained swing up to above the 1400 level is underway and I expect this rally to resume in earnest tomorrow or Friday. Meantime the market is likely to putting in several 10-20 points swings which is building the base for the upcoming rally.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is headed for 1.3700. The euro has traded 50 pips above 140.60 resistance this morning. Any strength above 141.10 today would turn me bullish once more.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

August Crude: A rally to 103-104 likely.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1485.

SLV - September Silver: Support is at 32.00. This market is about to head upward to resistance at 41.00. Any strength above 43.00 would mean that the move will continue above 50.00.

Google: I think a move to 700 and above has begun.

Apple: APPL has reached support at 318 and now should begin a move to 430.


chartblog said...

All week long the US markets have been subjected to Eurozone panic news from Italy, Spain, and Ireland yet has successfully ignored it all.

What is the old adage?

"When markets refuse to go down on bad news, they are destined to go higher".

Bill said...

Carl, I can't see the market going down all the way from 1440 to 1000 unless there is a major economic disaster, like a sovereign debt crisis. And if that were to happen it would mean another recession. I don's see another recession coming since we are just coming out of one, with unemployment still at 9.2%. I see over the next 10 years unemployment going down slowly back to the 4 % to 5 % range with solid stock price growth every year.

Bill said...

I'm not that optimistic the bull market will resume as early as tomorrow or Friday. The market has been unable to follow up higher after Bernanke opened the door for QE3, instead it's now trading of its highs for the day. This does not bode well in the short term.