Friday, July 29, 2011

Guesstimates on July 29, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1278-1296. I think the debt ceiling talks are much ado about nothing. The ES is likely to establish a low today and then begin a sustained rally. I expect to see the market above 1400 during the coming months.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is now headed for 1.5300. Support is at 142.00.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

August Crude: A rally to 103-104 likely.

GLD – August Gold: Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1520.

SLV - September Silver: Resistance is at 41.00. Any strength above 43.00 would mean that the move will continue above 50.00.

Google: I think a move to 750 and above is underway.

Apple: Upside target is now 415.


boris said...

Dear Reader,
I believe it is very instructive to see that SPY/CHF, which is the SPX index(etf) expressed in Swiss Frank.
It was
Not exact percentage, but close

1327 in April 2010
1069 in August 2010 down ~26%
1016 NOW Down ~28%

1937 in May 2007
1016 NOW Down ~48%

This is not a bull market Dear Readers. Even though Carl has , all along, correctly, identified declining Dollar( in terms of JPY and EURO , at least) he still not very clear that You could have made a lot more money buying SWISS FRANK, SINGAPORE DOLLAR, Or NORWAY KRONE , than buying USA ( or any other major stock indices).

This not bull market in world stocks( VT) , but Bear Market In Dollar.
It matters to you Dear American reader, because We bear the brunt of this loss of PURCHASE POWER, which most of nations are not experiencing.

I believe this is going to change later in the decade, but meanwhile, we are facing the bear markets in our lives, even as stock market may look bullish.

Dear Carl, gives you information( good one at that), unfortunately most of you are not able to figure if JPY going higher is worth buying it versus DOW.
That is why I am asking Carl to express the matters in more dimensions than Dollar

and Good Trading

BullandBearWise said...

Bradley turn date today:

khalid said...

you have been preaching the USD secular bear for years.


Selling the general US equities indexes, and instead buying CHF, JPY, Aussie Dollar, the Loony and of course, everybody's favorite "currency" these days, GOLD, has been a great, great trade.

But I've thought and looked into the whole purchasing power thing a lot a few years now. This thing about the Dollar being worthless.

Travelled many countries too.

I've come to this conclusion:

You are way too alarmist if you're questioning the currency's integrity itself.

Sure, if I want to buy property in Singapore or Canada, that's overvalued anyway these days, it doubly sucks because I have to convert US Dollars first to their currency

Ask multinationals about the rents they pay down in Zurich or Geneva.
The cost of living.

The Dollar is far from worthless.
Look at the Big Mac Index for starters.

Anywho, can someone let me know when Swissie's gonna turn around ???

boris said...

Dear Khalid,
I surely did not use the word worthless, Of course, it looks like one can still get by with Dollars in USA, but so was the case before in Germany before Hyperinflation.
It can happen and I am not predicting it for sure. In fact i defended Dollar against Mark Faber and a) showed him that my record on currencies is bar none and b) I thought Dollar will have its day again.

So, Not trying to either panic and/or scare anyone. Just making the case that multidimensional thinking can show the way in all cases, while dollar centered thinking has a lot of draw-backs.

Please not GOLD is down in SWISSY as well from APRIL 2010. How about that.

And my articles, found , on internet, will attest that I was not fond of gold either , since April 2010.

So, not too many people like my forecasts, because they seem to contradict everybody's favorite securities.

Even Swiss do not seem to like it(:-, as it hurts their exports( eventually).

No disagreements with you, just putting things in perspective and pointing out that, unthinkable things can still happen.
With great pair sensitivity i would say that one reason Dear Carl, thinks debt limit and perhaps debt itself is "much a do about nothing" is that all bulls seem to implicitly , believe that bullish view is justified, because FED can always print money.

Yes, they can and they have. But there are consequences. Sometimes unexpected ones, I would say.

Thanks Dear Friend

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
could you touch on your mid section count that you mentioned back in 2010 .and if you could
try to incorporate it with lindsays 2 peaks domed house along with lindsays time spans of an extended advances ??? not asking for much i realise just an entire
analysis of everything combined lol
my belief is though that it is all tieing together and while i look at it today it would be nice to see a comparion to gauge my own thoughts .

Adsense said...

Hi carl
I have read your thoughted noted a few weeks ago
First, Lindsay's 15 year, 3 month period from lows to highs started from the August 1996 low predicts a top late this year. Secondly, his count from the middle section from June 2006 to the March 2009 low is 33 months. Projecting forward this amount from the March 2009 low gives December 2011 as a likely bull market top. And third, Lindsay was not wedded to the 7 month, 10 day count from point 14 as a necessary condition for the completion of the domed house. Indeed, very few of his examples fit the schematic above exactly.

In the major formation, point 10 is at the 1008 level in the S&P - the level of the July 2010 low. In the two minor formations point 10 is the June 16 low in the S&P at 1258. So from point 23 I would expect to see a first wave down to 1250 or so and the entire bear market carry the S&P down to 1000

i still think an updated version showing the mid section count should be considered , just the labeling
thanks for the info you have provided so far .
thanks again