Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Guesstimates on July 26, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1334-1347. I think the debt ceiling talks are much ado about nothing. A move to 1400 is underway.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is now headed for 1.5300.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

August Crude: A rally to 103-104 likely.

GLD – August Gold: Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1485.

SLV - September Silver: Resistance is at 41.00. Any strength above 43.00 would mean that the move will continue above 50.00.

Google: I think a move to 750 and above is underway.

Apple: Upside target is now 415.

1 comment:

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
im labeling this point 20 . that said failed triangles are extremely bearish . timing wise
i have a 2 year subcycle high due aug 5th and a short term cycle that is on aug 2nd . it is apearing to me that with the debt ceing talks that agree are much to due about nothing surrounding the same date this week will be more sideways action and any real sell off should hold above the april 18th low based on the internals . technically though in regards to triangle formations the april 18 lows can and should be taken out unless this move from the july 8th high is forming another triangle .
1307.37 is 50 % of the widest point of the triangle and may be tested ( would not suprise me )
my intent is to look to the bullish side either friday or monday , the risks are still
outthere for the bearish case .
the way i see it this swing low we are now seeing should bottom this week and any break below it in the future will turn me longer term bearish . what i dont want to see is a formation similar to feb 18th march 9th as it would signal this entire formation as a sloppy head and shoulders top . i say sloppy because the neckline should be downsloping and it is not .
the bullish interpretaion is as i assume your thinking . a strong move up from this present swing low which takes the sp futures towards 1407-1423 into point 21
point 23 would then be in the area of 1440 . the entire range of 1392-1442 would be where i would look for a top . but ill add the may 2 high was with in lindsays time spans of bull markets and there was a low to low to high count calling for that day as a high .
but we are not yet into the time period of what lindsay termed and extended advance . the weekly xle also has a very well formed 3 peakes domed house pattern with the same count as the sp 500 .
bottom line : i am bearish at heart but not going to take any bearish trades at this point and more than willing to trade with a bullish bias . i exited my bullish trade into the july 8th high and held a few bullish trades since
but my plan all along was this would become a failed triangle and while i know better then to close my eyes to what the market is telling me i cant say this market has done anything wrong to change my bearish bias . yes mixed message and my thoughts are probably reflecting the markets overall sideways move .
ill give the bullish side benefit of doubt at this point is what im saying and will look to trade near 1307.37 using the april 18 th low as my stop and also i will use today into aug 5th as my time frame to become a buyer of the did if the parameters of price are met . i trade time more then price yet obviously watch both .
think i have rambled on way to much
good luck