Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Guesstimate on November 14, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1359--78. I am sticking with my 1310-20 downside target.
QQQ:  Downside target is 61.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  I now estimate support is at 1.2630. Any significant break of that level would cast serious doubt on my up-to-1.40 scenario.
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.
December Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.
GLD – December Gold:   Gold's drop has exceed the size of the biggest break on the way up from its 1530 low. I think this means that the market is headed back to 1530 and possibly lower.  
SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed below 26.00.  
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   
Apple:  The trend in the broader averages is downward and APPL should  continue down to 525.


Adsense said...

Hi Carl
well i was mentioning a gap down open Monday should bring a reversal
it looks like i was a day off with the gap lower yesterday /Tuesday .
so we should see a flat to upside bias into the next full moon which is also a lunar eclipse . if that works ill label it point 25 . i realize you don't agree with the labels yet i am sticking to it until proven wrong . as for the solar eclipse the market so far has followed the script by peaking roughly 1 month prior to and falling for 20-25 tradings days into the the solar eclipse . so a bounce would fit and technically it would be a run higher into the full moon lunar eclipse . we will see soon enough . looks like strength into thanks giving
add to that seasonal bias from Nov 7th to Jan 16th and it is easy to see the stat readers to attempting to by this market . flat to up is fine by me . i am in agreement with you for more downside just not on labels and time .
good luck

john said...

!381.8 O/N and breaking 1374 confirmed 1362.5 ..all I could see...
Bled back on our UK's Economic out look.

john said...

Correction is 8% in S+P500Thanksgiving now just a week away but I will THANK YOU BIG today for teaching and Giving Great Analysis.