Monday, November 12, 2012

Guesstimates on November 12, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1376-91. I am sticking with my 1310-20 downside target.
QQQ:  Downside target is 61.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Support  at 1.2750  has been broken by 50 pips or so but I think this is the pretty much all that will be seen on the downside for now.
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.
December Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.
GLD – December Gold:   Gold's drop has exceed the size of the biggest break on the way up from its 1530 low. I think this means that the market is headed back to 1530 and possibly lower.  
SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed below 26.00.  
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   
Apple:  The trend in the broader averages is downward and APPL should  continue down to 525.


Anonymous said...

Carl, I sold my port out today. Another loss. I agree with you. Some people are saying we have entered a Bear Market, which will only be apparent in hindsight of course, but best to try to recognize it early. I see you have appear to have us bouncing once we dive a good ways lower, then, I suppose some sort of recovery rally that falls way short of new highs, then a serious leg much lower.....I think the fundamentals are poor, and after a while this will finally matter to stocks. Your work in general, and the bear pattern you have monitored for a long time now, the domed house patter, supports the view that we have entered a Bear. Could you comment on this thought of mine?

Anonymous said...

We all talk a lot about a bull and bear markets. The time scale under consideration should also be stated, otherwise it is meaningless.

In all markets, bull, bear or flat, there are upswings and there are downswings. The only differences are that the upswings and downswings are equal, or unequal. In strongly trending markets, for the timescale under consideration, the differences beween the lengths of the swings can be large, but neverthelsss, the swings are always there, BOTH, UP and DOWN.

For daytraderws, the focus should be on catching the swings and not to worry about bull, bear, flat, or the manipulaive news BS.

The swings of futures, e.g. /ES, are more unpredicable and wild when the stock market is closed. The stock market acts like a "flywheel" and that is supposed to reduce the manipulations during the day but the manipulative forces have become so strong and coordinated that they are even reducing the stock market flywheel effect.

Nevertheless, the dumb machines, that are the predominant buyers and sellers these days, play and, therefore, accentuate the swings through massive program trading.

The TICK indicator is shows when the program trading is taking place and should be used for its important role in playing the swings.

In short, for daytraders, learning to swing is more important than entertaining the BS.

The machines should be easy to beat as, no matter how smart their algorithms are, their actions are predetermined. Smart human traders should be able to beat the predetermined actions of dumb machines, especially if the actions of the dumb machines are reflected in the market internals.

Good luck to all the human traders!!