Thursday, November 29, 2012

Guesstimates on November 29, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1407-1422. It is starting to look like the market will be trading for most of a session above 1404 and will close above that level.  This would imply that a move to 1468 and higher is underway.
QQQ:  If the S&P direction turns up then I will be looking for a move to 70 and higher in the Q's.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  I now estimate support is at 1.2630. Any significant break of that level would cast serious doubt on my up-to-1.40 scenario.
Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the yen is now headed for 85-86.  
January Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.
GLD – December Gold:   Gold has rallied past and closed well above the midpoint of the recent $130 drop so I conclude that the trend is back up. This means that the market is headed for 2000 and higher.
SLV - December Silver: Silver has been even stronger than gold and has closed above the midpoint of its recent drop. I think silver is now headed for $40.  
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   
Apple:  APPL has moved above 575-80 resistance. This reinforces my suspicion that the 505 low will hold and that AAPL is headed above 705.  Support now is at 545.

1 comment:

john said...

Plenty of “reasons” cited for Wed’s rally -Boehner’s “hopeful” remark, Obama
expressing optimism for reaching a deal, Sen. Conrad’s remarks on CNBC, anticipation of
Geithner’s Capital Hill meetings Thurs, the WSJ Fed article, etc.THE BIGG focus will be on Washington and any cliff developments. CLIFF resolved 1500 tgt again in the investors mind:)