Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Guesstimates on November 28, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1385-97. I am sticking with my 1310-20 downside target unless and until the ES spends most of a day trading above 1404, the midpoint of the September-November drop, and closes above that level.
QQQ:  Downside target is 61.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  I now estimate support is at 1.2630. Any significant break of that level would cast serious doubt on my up-to-1.40 scenario.
Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the yen is now headed for 85-86.  
January Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.
GLD – December Gold:   Gold has rallied past and closed well above the midpoint of the recent $130 drop so I conclude that the trend is back up. This means that the market is headed for 2000 and higher.
SLV - December Silver: Silver has been even stronger than gold and has closed above the midpoint of its recent drop. I think silver is now headed for $40.  
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   
Apple:  APPL has moved above 575-80 resistance. This reinforces my suspicion that the 505 low will hold and that AAPL is headed above 705.  Support now is at 545.

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