Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Guesstimates on November 21, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1385-94. I am sticking with my 1310-20 downside target.
QQQ:  Downside target is 61.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  I now estimate support is at 1.2630. Any significant break of that level would cast serious doubt on my up-to-1.40 scenario.
Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is a wide range, upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the yen is now headed for 85-86.  
January Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.
GLD – December Gold:   Gold's drop has exceed the size of the biggest break on the way up from its 1530 low. I think this means that the market is headed back to 1530 and possibly lower.  
SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed below 26.00.  
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   
Apple:  APPL should encounter resistance is the 575-80 zone and then begin another down leg. It would not surprise me to see this down leg stop above the 505 low even as the market averages move below their corresponding low points.


john said...

from a wise man...

Fiscal cliff - Wall Street + Washington lawmakers
“We are in Act 1, where it really looks like there is a chance Romeo and Juliet can get together,” Bell said, noting that William Shakespeare’s play ends in a
double suicide".

Rob said...

QQQ was down to 61.3 mid-day on Friday. I would think that satisfied your downside target of 61. No?

Politiskt Inkorrekt said...

When the cab driver mentions fiscal cliff, it means the market already has priced in the worst.

Even if the bearish scenario plays out I believe the bears will get slaughthered , we might see something like 1420-1430 before going down to 1250-1300.